CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRARIAN RESILIENCE: AN INDEX BASED APPROACH TO RANKING CLIMATE RISKS AND RELATED HAZARDS IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES OF PLATEAU STATE
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Resumo
Climate change is increasing the risk of hazards leading to not only extreme weather events but also slow onsets of temperature variations, shifts in precipitation, and changes in other features of the climate system. Climate risks have significant implications for agrarian livelihoods, food security and national development. Understanding the nature of climate risk is vital for informed decisions on risk management. This study utilized the index-based approach to rank climate risk in three communities of Shendam Riyom, and Mangu in Plateau State. Using a mixed methods sequential design with first semi-structured interviews followed by survey questionnaires, data on climate risks and related hazards was collected from 22 key informants alongside 229 questionnaires administered to farmers who provided information on the experiences of climate risk events within their environment. Content analysis was used to analyse information elicited from the semi-structured interviews whilst descriptive statistics of ranking used to ascertain the climate risk index computing the frequency of occurrence against the magnitude of impact of climate hazard events in the communities. Findings reveal that flood (0.81), Changing rainfall pattern (0.41), and water shortages (0.36) ranked the highest. The study further showed that seasonal experiences varied as drier conditions of stream-flow changes, warmer temperatures, less rain days and late onset of rains were dry season related risks. While heavier rains and destructive winds are high risk events of the wet season. Also, community experiences differed across the three selected locations, also. The study recommends a development of comprehensive climate risk assessments and mapping in order to improve the preparedness and contingency plans for climate change.
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