Weather-Induced Flight Disruptions: Analysing Trends, Implications and Mitigation Strategies at the Jos Airport, Plateau State, Nigeria
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Abstract
Visibility plays a crucial role in aviation safety and efficiency, influencing flight schedules and airline patronage. Poor visibility caused by weather conditions such as fog, thunderstorms, and harmattan haze has been identified as a major challenge for air transportation, often leading to delays, diversions, cancellations and even air crashes. This study examined the influence of visibility on passenger
preferences and booking patterns. Utilizing historical data obtained from NIMET, the research identified correlations between visibility conditions and fluctuations in airline patronage. A combination of quantitative analysis and case studies, focusing on Yakubu Gowon Airport in Jos, Plateau State, was employed to assess the effects of low visibility on flight schedules. The study also investigated the role of advanced technologies, such as CAT III Instrument Landing Systems (ILS), in mitigating visibility-related disruptions. Findings revealed that as visibility decreased, the likelihood of flight delays increased. Statistical analysis showed a moderate positive correlation (R = 0.530) between visibility and delays, indicating that while visibility was a significant factor (p < 0.05), other variables also contributed to flight disruptions. Approximately 28% of the variance in delays was attributed to visibility conditions, highlighting its substantial role in on-time flight performance. Nonetheless, the moderate positive correlation suggested that visibility played a substantively important role in on-time flight performance at Jos. The findings further showed the intricate relationship between visibility, airline patronage, and flight schedules. Poor visibility, such as due to fog or heavy rain, is more likely to lead to disruptions in flight operations, including cancellations and delays. The study recommended that airlines and aviation authorities consider visibility as a key factor in flight planning, particularly in regions prone to adverse weather. Additionally, mechanical and technical issues needed to be factored into delay management strategies. These findings emphasized the necessity of robust weather monitoring, safety protocols, and contingency planning to mitigate the impact of poor visibility on flight operations.
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References
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